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Sovereign risk

Sovereign risk is the economic (or financial) impact a government would face in the event of a disaster.

If the potential occurrence of a disaster is not taken into account in the government's budget and a disaster occurs, this could entail a deficit for the country, and impact negatively on the country’s creditworthiness. A sovereign risk financing strategy aims at strengthening the capacity of the government to respond after a disaster event while protecting its fiscal balance.

What is sovereign risk?

The sovereign is the State, representing its citizens. ‘Sovereign risk’, or country risk, is the risk that a government could default on its debt (sovereign debt) or other obligations. It is also, the risk generally associated with investing in a particular country, or providing funds to its government. Sovereign risk, in the context of disasters, is the economic impact a government would face in the case of a disaster which affects its citizens.

Why does sovereign risk matter?

The State has passive obligations, i.e. government expenses, some of which are direct - such as debt, budget expenses, pension passives and other social security mechanisms. Other passive obligations are indirect and classified as either explicit or implicit. Explicit are those that are also legal or contractual, but only paid if a particular event occurs, i.e. the State guarantees payment for subnational governments or private and public companies, for which, in case a certain monetary quantity is not attained, the State has to pay the agreed amount. The implicit indirect passives are not legally defined. They are also moral obligations, and it is unknown whether they will occur. This includes, for example, bankruptcy of the financial system, of social security funds, and the occurrence of disasters.

Disasters can sometimes overwhelm small island economies; the economic pressure in recovering from disasters is often disproportionate to the economic capacity of Pacific Island Countries and Territories (ODI, 2015).

If these latter expenses are not taken into account and a disaster occurs, this could mean a deficit for the country. Sovereign risk covers a potential loss that should be paid once disaster occurs (i.e. cost of recovery, reconstruction). Most developing country governments, particularly in smaller and less advanced economies, cannot afford the expense of a major disaster. If the impact were significant, the government would have to take resources from other sources to tackle these events. Redirecting funds to cover for these events would render development projects for the country secondary, and push countries further into debt.

Countries facing a financing gap for a 1-in-100-year loss event (UNISDR, 2015). Countries with budget deficits or insufficient reserves may not be able to absorb this kind of loss. This is not a problem for countries such as the USA, Canada, and most of Europe (excluding Greece), however countries such as Madagascar, Pakistan, and Nicaragua would face a major financing gap.

STORY

Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP)

The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool will reduce risks associated with earthquakes in Turkey. © Mustafa ÖZTÜRK/IHH CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Turkey

In 2000, the Turkish government established the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP), with the assistance of the World Bank.

SOURCE: Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010

What can be done to reduce sovereign risk?

In both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation there is a growing enthusiasm for insurance and other forms of risk financing in order pragmatically to protect against sovereign risk and theoretically strengthen resilience (Lavell et al, 2013). Future disasters are now accepted as contingent liabilities for the government. This means that disasters are contingent passives (potential debts) which would be real passives or actual debts for all citizens (society) when risk is materialized in disaster.

STORY

Costa Rica public insurance

Volcan Arenal, La Fortuna Costa Rica. © Arturo Sotillo CC BY-SA 2.0

Costa Rica

In collaboration with the World Bank, the Costa Rican government is developing a system to insure public assets at a lower cost than currently available.

SOURCE: Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010

Governments are, in principle, responsible for the security of their citizens and thus the resilience of citizens should be, almost by definition, a public sector concern (Lavell et al, 2013). However, the development of risk financing schemes normally reflects a narrower notion of the state (Lavell et al, 2013). Often it is government and its international financial arrangements that are protected against disasters, but not the nation and the many individuals of which it consists (Lavell et al, 2013).

Governments interested in strengthening their response capacity will generally have to combine a number of financial instruments and policies that complement each other (Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010).

As the external or internal debt must be paid, a financing strategy is necessary that includes not only how to access financial resources to cover the loss, but also how to reduce the loss in advance. This is a key incentive not only for the implementation of a decent risk assessment but risk reduction itself. Sovereign risk is a persuasive reason to make the risk management strategy a responsibility of the State, transferring accountability.

STORY

Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) and Fund for Prevention of Natural Disasters (FOPREDEN)

Cholula, Mexico. © Russ Bowling cc by 2.0

Mexico

Mexico’s Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) allocates government budgets to disaster risk reduction. The Fund for Prevention of Natural Disasters (FOPREDEN) develops on from this, towards a prevention rather than reactive finance system.

SOURCE: OECD, 2013

Financial protection will help governments mobilize resources in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, while buffering the long-term fiscal impact of disasters. However, a comprehensive risk management strategy should cover many other dimensions, including programs to better identify risks, reduce the impact of adverse events and strengthen emergency services. (Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010).

A sovereign risk financing strategy aims at strengthening the capacity of the government to respond after a natural disaster while protecting its fiscal balance (Ghesquiere and Mahul, 2010). A number of instruments are available to build such a strategy, each with its own cost structure and other characteristics (Ghesquiere and Mahul, 2010).

These can be categorized as ex-post (after a disaster) and ex-ante (before a disaster) financing instruments. Ex-post instruments are sources that do not require advance planning, such as budget reallocation, domestic credit, external credit, tax increase, and donor assistance (Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010). Ex-ante risk financing instruments require pro-active advance planning and include reserves or calamity funds, budget contingencies, contingent debt facility and risk transfer mechanisms (Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010). Risk transfer instruments are instruments through which risk is ceded to a third party, such as traditional insurance and reinsurance, parametric insurance and Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) instruments such as catastrophe (CAT) bonds (Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010).

An enabling regulatory and supervisory framework is important to ensure a sufficiently robust insurance sector with sufficient financial capacity to absorb, and where appropriate transfer, disaster risks, and that ultimately prices risk correctly thereby encouraging risk reduction.

STORY

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF)

Caribbean

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) provides coverage for 16 Caribbean countries exposed to earthquakes and hurricanes, spreading the risk across countries to reduce sovereign risk.

SOURCE: Ghesquire and Mahul, 2010

An effective financial strategy against natural disasters relies on a combination of these instruments, taking into consideration the country's fiscal risk profile, the cost of available instruments and the likely disbursement profile after a disaster (Ghesquiere and Mahul, 2010).

Comprehensive disaster risk assessment identifying exposures and interdependencies, as well as the leadership of Ministries/Ministers of Finance at the national level is crucial to the development and implementation of integrated disaster risk financing strategies.

Related

Related Sections on Preventionweb

Components of Risk

Disaster Risk
Risk is a forward looking concept, so disaster risk can be understood as the likelihood (or probability) of loss of life, injury or destruction and damage from a disaster in a given period of time (adapted from UNISDR, 2015a).
Hazard
A dangerous event that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption and, or environmental damage is known as a hazard (UNISDR, 2009b).
Exposure
The presence and number of people, property, livelihoods, systems or other elements in hazard areas (and so thereby subject to potential losses) is known as exposure (UNISDR, 2009b and IPCC, 2012).
Vulnerability
The name given to the set of characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard is vulnerability.

Risk Drivers

Climate change
Climate change can increase disaster risk in a variety of ways – by altering the frequency and intensity of hazard events, affecting vulnerability to hazards, and changing exposure patterns.
Environmental degradation
Environmental degradation is both a driver and consequence of disasters, reducing the capacity of the environment to meet social and ecological needs.
Globalized economic development
Globalized economic development can lead to increased exposure of assets in hazard-prone areas, leading to further increases in intensive risk if not managed.
Poverty & inequality
Poverty is both a driver and consequence of disasters, and the processes that further disaster risk related poverty are permeated with inequality
Poorly planned urban development
Whether or not disaster risk is factored into investment decisions in urban development will have a decisive influence on the future of disaster risk reduction.
Weak governance
Governance of disaster risk management must be improved, not only through specialized and stand-alone sectors, but also through strengthened governance arrangements across sectors and territories in order to address disaster risk.

Key Concepts

Capacity
Capacity refers to all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, organization or society that can be used to achieve agreed goals.
Deterministic & probabilistic risk
Deterministic risk considers the impact of a single risk scenario, whereas probabilistic risk considers all possible scenarios, their likelihood and associated impacts
Direct & indirect losses
Direct disaster losses refer to the number of people killed and the damage to buildings, infrastructure and natural resources. Indirect disaster losses include declines in output or revenue and generally arise from disruptions to the flow of goods and services.
Disaster risk reduction & disaster risk management
DRR is the policy objective of anticipating and reducing risk. Although often used interchangeably with DRR, DRM can be thought of as DRR implementation, since it describes the actions that aim to achieve the objective of reducing risk.
Intensive & extensive risk
Extensive risk is used to describe the risk of low-severity, high-frequency disasters, mainly but not exclusively associated with highly localized hazards. Intensive risk is used to describe the risk of high-severity, mid to low-frequency disasters, mainly associated with major hazards.
Resilience
Resilience refers to the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.
Sovereign risk
Sovereign risk is the economic impact a government would face in the event of a disaster.

Models

Risk modeling
We need data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and losses in order to understand and assess disaster risk.

Datasets

Datasets
Data and statistics are important in understanding the impacts and costs of disasters.
Data Viewers
Open access, online data viewers present hazard, disaster, and risk data in an easily accessible manner.

EDITED 12 NOV 2015 BY: PREVENTIONWEB EDITOR