Bracing for El Niño: impacts, risks and response in the Philippines

In June 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, characterised by warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and, generally, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea. El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas.

[...]

In September 2026, PAGASA, issued an update warning of a “very strong” El Niño which will peak in December and persist through the first half of 2027. The United Nations World Meteorological Organisation said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update that this year’s El Niño could be among the strongest witnessed since at least 1950.

[...]

A very strong El Niño this year, which will progress towards 2027, will create dry spells and droughts while the ongoing Southwest Monsoon, locally called “Habagat,” brings short-term heavy rainfall, particularly to the western section of the Philippines. This means that while the rest of the country will experience droughts and low rainfall, the western part of the country could see destructive floods.

[...]

Hydropower plants in the Philippines could also see reduced power generation due to low river flows during low rainfall and dry conditions. Inquirer reports that El Niño threatens a 1.6-megawatt hydropower plant in the southern Philippines. The 69-year-old hydroelectric power plant in Bukidnon, Mindanao serves about 15,000 households. This year’s El Niño is expected to reduce river flows and is projected to reach their lowest levels in March and April 2027, which will also decrease power generation and revenue.

[...]

The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction released the El Niño climate impact outlook to examine and project El Niño’s impacts across the countries. It identified agriculture and water resources as the main impact pathways, with potential consequences for food production, rural livelihoods, household welfare, health, energy, and the wider economy.