El Niño climate impact outlook - Philippines

The El Niño Climate Impact Outlook: Philippines examines the expected evolution of El Niño during the second half of 2026 and its potential impacts across the country. Forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and progressively worsening dry conditions in parts of the Philippines.

Some of the key message from the outlook include:

• El Niño is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and progressively worsening dry conditions across parts of the Philippines.
• Agriculture and water resources are likely to be the principal impact pathways, with potential consequences for food production, rural livelihoods, household welfare, health, energy and the wider economy.
• Exposure is likely to be greatest in rainfed and drought-prone agricultural areas, strategically important foodproducing regions and communities dependent on constrained water systems.