Climate change scenarios and climate data

Discussion paper number 9:

This document reports on the rationale for selection of climate change scenarios and climate data for the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) global analysis, which aims to better understand what adaptation to climate change really is and how-without such adaptation-development progress will be threatened and may even be reversed. It is intended for decision makers in developing countries to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change.

The analysis considers climate change impacts that will require adaptation: (a) increased incidence of extreme weather events, which will draw resources away from development initiatives; (b) increased incidence of infectious and diarrheal diseases, which will reverse development gains in health standards; (c) changes in temperature and precipitation, which will affect agricultural productivity, making investments in this sector less productive; and (d) sea-level rise, which will lead to loss of lives and assets. It estimates adaptation costs for all developing countries by major economic sectors using country-level data sets that have global coverage and covers the agriculture, forestry, fisheries, infrastructure, water resources, coastal zones, health, and ecosystem services sectors. It also considers the cost implications of changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, including the implications for social protection programmes.