Seven minutes to disaster: How climate change exposed a Himalayan blind spot
[...]
Experts say the number of highly dangerous flash flood events worldwide has risen significantly over roughly the past decade. The source of this disaster was in a monitoring “blind spot”: neither China nor Nepal, nor the international scientific community, had previously identified the site as being at risk of becoming unstable.
[...]
At the same time, uncertainty within ecosystems is increasing. A study published in Nature Communications on 21 August found that model projections for 2025 to 2100 suggest that variations in water availability across the Tibetan Plateau could widen, hydrological buffering capacity could weaken, and system entropy could increase, pushing the overall system towards greater disorder.
The researchers stressed that this does not mean the Tibetan Plateau will inevitably undergo a “tipping point”-type collapse. Rather, under continued warming, the stability and resilience of its hydrological system may decline.
[...]
The speed at which the disaster unfolded made early warning even more difficult. Liu Qiao, a researcher at the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Water Resources in Chengdu, told Sanlian Lifeweek Magazine (《三联生活周刊》) that meltwater generated by melting ice, together with the air blast created by its high-speed movement, reduces friction and provides lift for all the material carried along by the flow.
[...]
The Stimson Center recommended combining satellite remote sensing with seismic, meteorological and river monitoring, while also making use of local people, such as herders and mountaineers, to identify unusual activity. It also called for stronger information sharing between China and Nepal and greater transboundary risk analysis.
[...]