To build trust, start by listening: Introducing the Community Trust Index for early warning systems

This article is based on an Ignite Stage presentation at the 2025 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. The Ignite Stage offers fast-paced, impactful talks from diverse voices working at the forefront of disaster risk reduction.

Picture Alina, a smallholder farmer from rural Malawi. She knows the land, the river's moods, the subtle signs in the wind. One day, a voice on the radio urges everyone in the district to evacuate because a cyclone is coming. But the message is hurried, unclear. Alina hesitates - warnings in the past haven't always meant danger. Nevertheless, that night, she decides to take her children and stay at the home of a friend in another district. This might have saved her life - by morning, the roof of Alina's home is gone.

Alina's story may be fictional, but for millions, her dilemma is very real. It reflects a critical gap between knowing and acting, between hearing a warning and believing it enough to take shelter. At the heart of this gap is one word: trust.

The missing piece in early warning system

In recent years, we've seen major progress in early warning systems (EWS). More than half of countries now have multi-hazard early warning capabilities. Technological advancements, infrastructure investments and improved governance have all contributed to saving lives and livelihoods.

But are we listening enough to the communities these systems are meant to serve?

Too often, disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies focus on delivering information, rather than understanding how people receive it and what makes them act. Risk, after all, is not just something calculated by meteorologists or agencies. It's something people feel, live with, interpret and act on in their daily lives.

This is where the Community Trust Index (CTI) for Early Warning Systems, developed by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), comes in. The CTI is an innovative, evidence-based tool designed to measure how much communities trust Early Warning Systems, the actors behind them, and the information they receive - particularly around risk knowledge, forecasts, warnings communication, and preparedness and response.

Understanding Trust
Trust is a cornerstone of strong communities and thriving societies. It underpins cooperation, enables economic and social development, and enhances resilience in times of crisis. Often defined as "a person's belief that another person or institution will act consistently with their expectations of positive behaviour," (OECD, 2017) trust rests on a strong social contract. Trust is not fixed - it develops over time and is influenced by a range of social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors. It can be gained or lost through actions, perceptions, and the quality of relationships. Yet, in humanitarian and development work, trust is often assumed rather than assessed, with limited efforts to understand or strengthen it based on evidence.

UNDRR

What is the Community Trust Index for Early Warning Systems?

The Community Trust Index for Early Warning Systems is a vital tool developed to strengthen trust in early warning systems, including the institutions, actors, and the information and alerts they provide. It is part of the broader Community Trust Index developed by IFRC, which consists of five thematic modules, one of which focuses specifically on early warning systems (EWS). The Trust Index for EWS module aims to:

• Understand how communities trust early warning systems and the barriers and enablers that shape that trust;
• Track why trust varies between place, periods, and groups;
• Act on what data says to foster trust, early action, and effective disaster risk reduction.

The Trust Index measures two fundamental drivers of trust: perceptions of competence - how capable institutions and systems are in delivering reliable and timely services - and perceptions of values and ethics - whether actors are seen as fair, transparent, and acting in the best interest of the community. These two dimensions are combined into a trust score ranging from 1 to 10, offering a standardized metric to assess trust levels across different settings.

Piloted recently in Mozambique and Nepal, the Trust Index for EWS is designed to be end-to-end, covering all four core pillars of early warning systems: Disaster risk knowledge; Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of hazards; Warning dissemination and communication; and Preparedness and response capabilities. The tool is grounded in a people-centred approach, drawing directly from community voices and lived experiences, and it is designed to be actionable - providing insights that can immediately inform programme decisions and policy shifts.

For each of the four pillars, the Trust Index for EWS includes a set of carefully developed questions that generate both standardized quantitative data - measuring how much people trust various components - and contextualized qualitative insights that help explain the reasons behind those trust levels. This dual approach reveals not only whether communities trust a system, but also why they do or do not act on its alerts, and what social or behavioural drivers influence their responses. The result is a rich, evidence-based understanding of community trust that can strengthen the effectiveness, reach, and impact of early warning systems in disaster-prone settings.

Insights into action

"The Trust Index is not only about data. It is about the power of using data to generate positive change." -Xavier Castellanos, Under Secretary General for National Society Development and Operations Coordination, IFRC

The CTI is more than a diagnostic tool - it's a call to action, a power to use evidence to attain positive change at the local level. Understanding trust levels should be the starting point, not the end point. When communities express distrust, the solution is not just better communication, but meaningful participation and engagement, co-designed solutions and accountability.

As a public good developed by the IFRC, the Trust Index offers an opportunity for all actors, including governments, NGOs and DRR professionals, to reflect: are we designing systems for communities, or with them? Are we building policies based on what we think people need, or on what they tell us they need? Are we designing early warning systems that are likely to lead to action?

The power of the CTI lies in its simplicity. If you want people to trust you, start by listening. And once you listen - act.

Want to learn more?

The CTI is presented at the global DRR forums. For practitioners looking to adopt or pilot the tool, IFRC offers technical guidance and training resources.

In a time when humanitarian work is under increasing scrutiny, let's lead with evidence to remain accountable - to the communities we serve, our partners, and our donors.

Let's build early warning systems that communities trust - and respond to.

Let's invest in community trust as a foundation for lasting impact.

Gefra Fulane, Ph.D., is the Research Coordinator at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), where she leads the development of the Community Trust Index to enhance trust in humanitarian action. With over a decade of experience in research and project management, she has held roles with WHO, UNICEF, and academic institutions, and holds degrees in Anthropology, Development and Global Health, and Tropical Knowledge and Management. Passionate about community-centered approaches, Gefra is committed to inclusive, accountable humanitarian work and brings a creative, optimistic spirit to everything she does.

Stéphanie Julmy is the Global Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Lead at the IFRC, where she oversees key initiatives in community-based disaster risk reduction, early warning, and anticipatory action, including leading Pillar 4 of the UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative. With over 21 years of experience across the UN and Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, she has held leadership roles in Gaza, Haiti, and New York, and has driven major resilience and climate programs since joining IFRC in 2018. Stéphanie holds a Master’s in Climate Change and Development and is passionate about empowering at-risk communities through locally led, sustainable solutions.