Early warning

This article shows that it is vital to focus on who delivers the early warning messages. Messengers commanding high levels of trust need to be actively engaged to ensure information reaches people frequently and widely.

Hurricane agency forecasts warn at the country-scale and not for one site. This paper introduces LiveCyc, a probabilistic forecasting system that takes any agency forecast and works out the wind distribution at the 1-km scale of a single neighborhood.

Bangladesh has achieved a milestone in the country’s two-year journey towards an effective and resilient early warning system: the launch of its Early Warnings for All (EW4All) National Roadmap.

A NASA, UCSD and NOAA collaboration uses machine learning on satellite navigation data to detect sudden atmospheric moisture spikes, flagging likely flash floods for forecasters in as little as fifteen minutes.

China’s AI-powered weather system deployed in Pakistan to support multi-hazard early warning and disaster risk reduction. Experts welcome its potential but stress that forecast accuracy depends on data quality, local validation and preparedness systems.

This brief highlights Save the Children Nigeria’s Community-Led Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Anticipatory Action approach, which helps communities prepare for and respond to predictable hazards before they escalate into crises.

Jeannette Sutton and Eddie Bertola break down USGS ShakeAlert, earthquake early warnings, Wireless Emergency Alerts, and the technology that can warn people before strong shaking arrives.

This study evaluates opportunities to enhance the Mali Red Cross Early Action Protocol (EAP) for riverine flooding by comparing global flood forecasting systems against the country's current trigger model.

The interplay of water, infrastructure, and danger drives home the central lesson of disaster risk reduction: there is no such thing as a ‘natural’ disaster. A natural hazard becomes a disaster only when people are placed in its path.

Recurrent floods have forced Juneau to confront a problem that communities around the world are increasingly facing: How do you prepare for a natural disaster when you know it will come back?

The devastating floods that swept through San Antonio and the Texas Hill Country in 2025 left researchers with an urgent question: What can be learned from these events to better prepare communities for the next catastrophic flood?

This study proposes a new temporal merging method for seamless climate forecast information of climate extremes.

It provided a platform to take stock of Syria’s existing early warning capacities, identify institutional, technical and operational gaps, strengthen coordination between national and local actors, and align ongoing initiatives.

This editorial uses the 2026 Gyirong–Rasuwagadhi rock–ice avalanche, debris-flow and flood cascade to argue for integrated transboundary warning systems linking monitoring, detection, impact forecasting and pre-authorized action.

This case study examines the current state of the heat early warning system in Pakistan, including how heat risk is understood and monitored, and how warnings are issued, communicated, and acted upon across institutions.

New AI model detects solar storm warning signs nearly nine hours before the underlying activity becomes visible on the Sun’s surface, a breakthrough that could give satellite operators and power grid companies time to prepare for incoming space weather.

This case study examines the current state of Senegal’s heat early warning system, including how heat risk is understood and monitored, and how warnings are issued, communicated and acted upon across institutions.

This policy brief draws on a mixed-methods study comprising a national survey of 1,097 adults in England and semi-structured interviews with 29 heat risk communicators.

This study introduces the ICLEWS framework and assesses local early warning systems in 2,289 Brazilian municipalities. Results highlight gaps in staffing, financing, social participation and governance, underscoring the need for stronger local capacities.

The disaster exposed a weakness on both sides of Nepal’s warning system: It had no real-time information about the hazard developing in Tibet, while the monitoring equipment it had installed inside Nepal was destroyed before it could send an alert.

This case study of Vietnam’s heat early warning system finds that heat monitoring and forecasting are established, but risk knowledge, preparedness, targeting of warnings and institutional coordination remain limited.

Mobile-based SMS alerts are a key part of Madagascar’s multi-hazard early warning system (EWS), alongside radio, community relay mechanisms, and institutional communication channels.

This report draws on four case studies and insights from the Mobile for Humanitarian Innovation (M4H) programme’s own in-country experience to identity practical lessons for mobile-enabled EWS implementation in low- and middle-income (LMIC) contexts.

The September 2026 GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning report provides an overview of global crop conditions with a focus on regions vulnerable to food insecurity.

This paper presents LiveCyc, a machine learning system that converts tropical cyclone forecasts into probabilistic 1-km wind forecasts. Evaluation across 16 U.S. hurricane landfalls shows well-calibrated results and supports optimized warning triggers.

Rajendra Dawadi, who leads Tribhuvan Trishuli Secondary School in Nuwakot - which has a total student population of just over 1,600 - says he received four warnings from different people within minutes.

A survey of 140 Indonesian operational meteorologists finds that terminology ambiguity and reliance on weather station data hinder heat warning dissemination. Past successful warnings and a liberal warning philosophy strongly influence warning decisions.

Two behavioural experiments in China show that government-issued disaster warnings generate higher trust than AI warnings. Consistent government-AI messages increase trust and protective intentions, while conflicting warnings increase anticipated regret.

The Africa Early Warnings Forum, held from 2 to 4 September 2026, comes at a critical moment for the continent. Since the UN Secretary-General launched EW4All in 2022, calling for universal protection by 2027, significant progress has been achieved.

While an imminent catastrophe is not predicted in Jammu and Kashmir’s Chenab Valley, recent studies and government assessments suggest that Kishtwar district possesses many of the characteristics that make Himalayan regions vulnerable to such disasters.

A survey of 1,207 households across three severely affected districts (Buner, Shangla, and Swat) revealed that 85 percent of families received no warning before the flood waters arrived. For those that did, half had less than thirty minutes to act.

New research shows the most destructive tsunami from Tonga’s 2022 Hunga eruption was triggered by caldera collapse, not an explosion. The collapse generated detectable underwater sound waves that could help provide earlier warnings of volcanic tsunamis.

This paper identifies transboundary GLODF threats across the Himalayas and projects their future evolution under climate change, highlighting growing risks, hotspots along the China–Nepal border, and the need for stronger monitoring and early warning.

The Africa Early Warnings Forum, held in Addis Ababa, highlighted Africa's progress in expanding early warning systems, but with climate and disaster risks accelerating, the task now is to translate that progress into protection for everyone.

A team analyzed radar data from European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellites acquired between 8 January and 18 August. The last observation was only seven days before the disaster. Images revealed accelerated glacier-rock movement before the collapse.

This study assesses preparedness, response and recovery following Cyclone Ana in Zimbabwe. It finds gaps in preparedness, warning communication and coordination, and calls for community-centred DRM, stronger capacity, financing and contingency planning.

This case study examines the current state of the Philippines’ heat early warning system, including how heat risk is understood and monitored, and how warnings are issued, communicated and acted upon across institutions.

This case study examines the current state of Jordan’s heat early warning system, including how heat risk is understood and monitored, and how warnings are issued, communicated and acted upon across institutions.

This case study examines the current state of Mexico’s heat early warning system, including how heat risk is understood and monitored, and how warnings are issued, communicated and acted upon across institutions.

A glacier collapse near the China-Nepal border triggered a catastrophic mudslide in just seven minutes, exposing gaps in monitoring and early warning as climate change raises the risk of extreme Himalayan disasters.

A deadly Nepal-Tibet border flood highlights how limited cross-border data sharing, restricted access to Tibet and weak early warning systems can hinder disaster preparedness. The article calls for greater regional cooperation on climate and flood risks.

Machine-learning techniques could help provide more warning. By detecting subtle changes in the continuous vibrations around a volcano, they can potentially identify signs of an impending eruption hours beforehand.

Experts say the Nepal-Tibet flood was driven by a glacier collapse, monsoon-saturated conditions and high exposure in a vulnerable mountain corridor. The disaster highlights cascading risks, preparedness gaps and the need for cross-border warning systems.

A massive rescue and relief operation has been launched in the wake of devastating flash floods in Nepal, which were triggered by an avalanche of ice and rocks in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China near the border with Nepal.

The disaster in Rasuwa has once again exposed the vulnerability of Himalayan communities to climate-driven hazards and highlighted gaps in monitoring and early warning systems.