Heat risk communication by operational meteorologists in Indonesia: Current operational challenges and decision-making dilemmas in heat early warning system

This study examines heat risk communication and decision making by operational meteorologists (OMs) in Indonesia’s heat early warning system (HEWS). Using a cross-sectional survey of 140 OMs serving urban coastal areas across 31 provinces and hierarchical ordinary least squares regression, the authors explore the challenges faced by meteorologists authorized to issue heat warnings under a nationwide fixed threshold system. The study finds that the current threshold may fail to adequately capture localized heat stress and vulnerability and investigates how institutional constraints and personal judgment shape warning dissemination and warning decisions.

The findings identify terminology ambiguity and reliance on weather station data as the primary determinants of dissemination challenges. The decision to issue a warning is predicted by past experience with successful warnings, meteorological analyses, and adoption of a more “liberal” warning philosophy. The authors conclude that HEWS decision making is a socio-technical practice shaped by institutional culture, operational norms, and available data. They recommend developing adaptive heat thresholds co-designed with epidemiologists, urban planners, and public health experts; strengthening intersectoral collaboration and integration with real-time health data; expanding measurement tools and urban vulnerability data; and enhancing operational training through experiential learning and scenario-based simulations.