Somalia country climate and development report

The report examines the interaction between climate change, economic development, and fragility in Somalia, a country highly vulnerable to droughts, floods, and extreme heat. It analyzes how climate risks affect key sectors such as agriculture, livestock, fisheries, infrastructure, and urban development, while also exploring how climate shocks interact with poverty, conflict, and institutional fragility. The study uses climate and economic modeling to estimate future impacts and identify policies that can support climate-resilient development.

The report finds that climate change could significantly reduce Somalia’s economic growth, potentially causing GDP losses of over 13% by 2060 under pessimistic scenarios. However, strong development policies, economic diversification, and targeted climate adaptation measures, such as improved disaster risk management, resilient rural livelihoods, and climate-smart urban planning, could dramatically reduce these impacts and even generate economic gains. The study concludes that coordinated investment in resilience and governance is essential to break the cycle of climate vulnerability, poverty, and fragility.