From conflict to resilience: tackling climate, debt and food insecurity in Somalia

This paper examines the depth of interconnected crises in Somalia by assessing the scale of climate impacts, linkages between climate risk and debt distress, and how these factors drive food insecurity. Somalia is at the centre of an escalating crisis where climate change, economic distress and food insecurity intersect, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of vulnerability. 

As one of the most fragile and conflict-affected states in the world, Somalia faces compounded risks due to weak governance, limited fiscal space and an over-reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods. The country’s exposure to extreme weather events, coupled with an unsustainable debt burden, has severely constrained its ability to invest in resilience, social protection and sustainable food systems. Through empirical data analysis, trend assessments and regression modelling, the study provides a comprehensive evidence base for policymakers to act on targeted solutions.