Fragility and conflict

Somalia, Lebanon and Yemen are advancing National Adaptation Plans amid conflict and fragility, using climate data, local assessments and conflict-sensitive approaches to strengthen resilience and access adaptation finance.

The Climate Security Sensitivity Tool (CSST) helps programme teams compare local conflict risks with their adaptation plans, and field testing in Ghana and Mali shows why that first assessment must then be checked with local experts and communities.

IFPRI is launching new research on seed systems in conflict zones. The project in northern Ethiopia and northern Nigeria examines how climate shocks, conflict, and displacement affect seed access and local seed systems.

Australia and Türkiye have an opportunity to put climate, peace and security back on the COP31 agenda by integrating conflict sensitivity into climate adaptation, increasing finance for fragile states and turning commitments into action.

This policy brief reviews empirical research and finds that climate change increases armed conflict risk primarily in areas with economic vulnerability and fragile governance, emphasizing the importance of resilience and conflict-sensitive adaptation.

Higher temperatures are linked to more gun violence incidents across 100 U.S. cities. Rising temperatures driven by human-caused climate change can amplify the risk of aggressive and violent behavior and, in turn, increase the number of shootings.

Nearly four years after a peace deal ended the devastating war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, conflict has resumed, threatening stability across the Horn of Africa and overshadowing a catastrophic food crisis.