Food security benefits of more accurate weather forecasts in the context of a changing climate

This working paper examines the food security benefits of more accurate weather forecasts in the context of climate change, focusing on Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Bangladesh. The authors use micro-econometric analysis, combining household survey data, national meteorological agency forecasts (temperature and precipitation), and high-resolution reanalysis climate data from ERA5-Land. The study investigates whether access to more accurate weather forecasts reduces crop losses and influences farmers’ decision-making, particularly in labour hiring during the harvest season.

Across the four countries studied, the authors find that access to reliable weather forecasts helps farmers make better decisions. Farmers are more likely to change their practices when local weather forecasts have proved reliable in the past and when they warn of more extreme weather than might have been anticipated. More accurate forecasts are linked to lower rates of crop loss, particularly during periods of extreme heat and heavy rainfall. By helping farmers anticipate and respond to weather risks, improved forecasting could boost agricultural productivity and contribute to greater food security.