Regional mapping of anticipatory action capacities in the Near East and North Africa agricultural sector

This report argues for a strategic expansion of Anticipatory Action (AA) to more systematically include the agricultural components, to place it at the intersection of humanitarian response and long-term climate adaptation. It emphasizes early protection of production systems – livestock, crops, fisheries, and natural resources – before forecasted shocks occur. By focusing on proactive risk reduction for agriculture, AA for agriculture offers a dual benefit: preserving rural livelihoods and protecting food supply chains, especially in fragile or climate-vulnerable areas.

Main findings from the report include:

1. Limited government ownership – AA frameworks in the NENA region are predominantly initiated and managed by international actors, with limited engagement from national governments.
2. Weak coordination across levels and sector – AA efforts are often siloed, with poor coordination between national, subnational, and sectoral stakeholders. This fragmentation prevents the development of coherent, multihazard AA systems that can effectively link early warning to AA across agriculture, disaster risk management, and social protection.
3. Insufficient integration with climate and development planning – Although climate adaptation and agricultural development strategies are gaining prominence, they rarely include short-term anticipatory mechanisms. This disconnect undermines the potential to link immediate protective actions with long-term resilience objectives.
4. Forecasting and early warning systems remain underutilized for agriculture – Many NENA countries have made technical progress in forecasting, but agricultural agencies are not fully integrated into national early warning systems.
5. Low inclusion of agricultural triggers and tailored protocols – Only three of the six active AA frameworks in the region explicitly include agriculture-specific components, such as protocols for protecting crops or livestock. This limits the capacity of AA systems to deliver timely and relevant support to farmers.
6. Disproportionately low AA financing in NENA – In 2024, only 2.5 percent of global AA funding was allocated to countries in the NENA region, despite the region's high exposure to compound risks. Agricultural AA programmes are particularly underfunded, even though food systems are central to livelihoods and stability.