Why Central Luzon and Metro Manila are sinking into deeper flood risk

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While global sea levels are rising by an average of 1 to 3 millimeters annually because of climate change, parts of Central Luzon are subsiding at rates exceeding 100 millimeters per year. This subsidence, driven primarily by decades of unsustainable groundwater extraction, has created a situation in which the land is sinking much faster than the sea level is rising.

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Poor communities bear disproportionate burdens because they lack resources for relocation or adaptation. The crisis thus exacerbates social inequities, with vulnerable populations facing the greatest risks.

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Other Asian cities face subsidence, including Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. Yet the Philippine case is distinctive because of higher subsidence rates, weaker governance capacity, greater exposure to typhoons and monsoons, and agricultural dependence.

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Addressing the subsidence crisis also requires systemic reforms. Water management must be reformed to enforce groundwater extraction limits, invest in alternative water sources such as rainwater harvesting and water recycling, and establish integrated water governance institutions.

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