International workshop advances in flood forecasting and the implications for risk management

Background

Floods are major natural hazards affecting large areas and millions of people world-wide every year. They are a regularly recurring phenomenon with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts. Flood prevention and protection will be one of the most important challenges for all parties involved in flood risk management in the coming decades. It will be a continuous task of governmental bodies and scientific institutes, in close cooperation with society and business, to look for innovative methods for flood protection and prevention, especially in a transboundary context.

Recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling. Information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management.

The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives.

Objectives

- To introduce new approaches in hydrological and meteorological forecasting
- To discuss ways of assessing, communicating and accepting uncertainty
- To improve practical decision making based on a better understanding of theory
- To foster integrated approaches (model chain, risk assessment, decision and communication)
- To explore ways of integrating predictive uncertainty into decision making processes
- To address the benefits of forecasting systems

Structure and workshop themes

The workshop is divided in three plenary working sessions:

Theme 1: New approaches to flood forecasting
- Forecasting systems (HYDROLOGY, METEOROLOGY)
- Quantification of uncertainty
- Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting

Theme 2: Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
- Understanding and enhancing public's behavioural response to flood warning information
- General principles of theory - versus actual practice
- Boundary conditions and drivers of decision making (economy)
- Integrated decision support systems (DSS)
- Decision making under known uncertainty (risk informed decision making)

Theme 3: Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
- Verification of forecast and warning
- Assessment of predictive uncertainty
- Communication of uncertainty
- Communication systems
- Human factor (psychological aspects of forecasting and warning)
- Common language
- Role of media/competing services
- Training/preparedness

Programme

Day 1 - 25th May 2010
- Theme block 1 - New approaches to flood forecasting
- Advances in Flood Forecasting with Delft-FEWS
- Meteorological ensemble forecasting
- Quantification of uncertainties in hydrological forecasting - Ezio Todini, University Bologna
- The Cost731 Action- Propagation of uncertainty from meteorology into hydrological models
- A flexible approach to flood modelling
- Two strategies for the quantification of uncertainty in the European Flood Alert System

Theme block 2 - Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
- Decision support systems and decision making under known uncertainty
- Decision support in the response phase during actual flooding in the Netherlands
- More information is not always better: coping with uncertainty in water management
- Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessments

Day 2 - 26th May 2010

Theme block 3 - Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
- On the way to Ensemble Hydrological Forecasts: Lessons learned from MAP D-PHASE
- Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
- Warning communications and communication warnings
- The media do not report on forecasts, they report on events
- The role of affect in communicating flood risks