Spatiotemporal evolution and determinants of urban flood resilience: a case study of Yellow River basin

This study constructs a flood resilience indicator system at the urban scale based on the “pressure-state-response” (PSR) model in the context of cities in China. Indicator weights were determined using the analytic hierarchy process–entropy weight method (AHP-EWM), the flood resilience of 35 cities within the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2021, and their spatiotemporal evolution patterns, spatial correlations, and determinants were analyzed. 

The results indicate that flood resilience shows an upward trend over time, with stronger resilience observed in upstream and downstream cities and weaker resilience in midstream cities. The spatial correlation of flood resilience was significantly positive in 2010, 2015, and 2021, while it exhibited non-significant, fluctuating declines in other years. Most cities in Henan and Shandong provinces are characterized as high–high agglomeration type, whereas most cities in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces are classified as low–low type. Drainage efficiency, municipal investment, resilient planning, and urbanization have significant positive impacts on flood resilience, while the urban registered unemployment rate shows a positive spatial spillover effect. This study analyzed the flood resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin from a comprehensive and logically coherent perspective and concluded with targeted recommendations aimed at enhancing flood resilience in the region.