Climate Hazard Assessment – Lamwo District

The report assesses climate hazards in Uganda's Lamwo District, analyzing historical trends and future projections for seasonal drought and localized flooding. Utilizing remote sensing data, index analysis (SPI and VCI), and climate modeling under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the assessment examines how rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and environmental degradation impact local agrarian livelihoods, cropland, and refugee-hosting areas such as the Palabek Settlement.

Key messages from the report:

• Lamwo District currently receives ~1,143 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,363 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, greater seasonal variability, prolonged dry spells and higher evapotranspiration are expected to intensify water stress especially in densely populated Palabek refugee settlement.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5 -2.6 oC during the warmest month and driest quarters. This is likely to lead to more frequent extreme heat conditions, increasing heat stress and seasonal drought risk, which in turn can negatively affect crop yields, livestock health, and water availability.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness across Paloga, Agoro and Madi Opei Sub counties, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability.
• Palabek (Kal, Ogili and Gem), Paloga and Lokung are more susceptible to water logging and flash floods due to low elevation, downstream position and low forest cover. Their gently sloping terrain easily accumulates runoff during peak rainfall periods, resulting in repeated damage to shelters,