Climate Hazard Assessment – Yumbe District

This climate hazard assessment evaluates drought, flooding, and heat stress risks across Uganda’s Yumbe District, home to the large Bidibidi Refugee Settlement. Combining geospatial mapping, historical climate data, and future projections, the report highlights how temperature increases and unpredictable rainfall strain local resources, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Key messages from the assessment

• Yumbe District currently receives ~1,277 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,441 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, persistent dry-season deficits and higher evapotranspiration will intensify water stress, especially in the southern subcounties and densely populated Bidibidi settlement.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5-2.9 oC during the warmest month and driest quarters, increasing the risk of drought, heat stress and the frequency of very hot days across agricultural and settlement areas.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness across Romogi, Ariwa, Odravu and Bidibidi zones 1-5, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability. 
• Recurrent flooding affects southern and southeastern Yumbe, including Yoyo, Langi, Erezeli, Okubani and Bidibidi zones 3-5, where low-lying terrain and poor drainage cause repeated damage to shelter, farmlands, and infrastructure