Why some Europeans face deadlier heat and cold: Inequality map reveals who is most at risk
Regions with greater socioeconomic inequalities are more affected by cold weather, whereas areas with higher levels of wealth and urbanization are at greater risk during heat waves and lower risk during cold spells. This is shown by a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The results, published in Nature Health, for the first time quantify across the urban and rural population of 32 European countries how socioeconomic inequalities influence temperature-related mortality .
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However, the risk is not uniform. Due to socioeconomic disparities, climate does not affect everyone equally; environmental temperatures have a disproportionate impact on disadvantaged populations. Even in high-income regions, the consequences vary between territories and social groups—factors such as wealth distribution, housing conditions and socioeconomic structure shape vulnerability.
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The study estimates temperature-attributable deaths by comparing two hypothetical scenarios: one in which all regions have the most favorable socioeconomic conditions, and another in which all are at the least favorable extreme. The difference in the number of deaths between the two scenarios exceeds 300,000 in the case of inability to keep the home warm, reaches 177,000 in relation to economic inequality, and is around 157,000 in the case of severe material and social deprivation in Europe.
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Regions with higher GDP per capita and longer life expectancy show lower mortality associated with cold, probably due to better insulated housing, stronger health care systems and lower energy poverty. However, these same regions show higher mortality during heat. This phenomenon may be explained by intense urbanization: dense cities and concentrated economic activity favor the "urban heat island" effect. In this climatic phenomenon, urbanized areas experience higher temperatures due to heat absorption by asphalt and the lack of vegetation, among other factors.