IMD to strengthen modelling systems to accurately capture extreme rainfall events

By Anjali Marar

Starting from the Southwest monsoon 2021 season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will have an expanded bouquet of weather models and be better equipped, particularly to capture and issue timely forecasts ahead of extreme rainfall events during the season.

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Extremely heavy to very heavy rainfall (115mm to 204mm in 24 hours) occurring over a short span of time, leading to flash floods, urban floods, landslides, and large-scale destruction is increasingly becoming a common phenomenon during the June to September monsoon season over the country.

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IMD issues a Long Range Forecast (LRF) ahead of an upcoming monsoon season in two stages — April and in June. The April forecast mentions overall quantum rainfall (in per cent) for the Long Period AVerage for the country as a whole. Its updated version, issued in June, gives the probable rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions — North, East and Northeast, Central and South Peninsular India for the four-month period.

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In addition to the present weather models, the monsoon forecasters will take guidance from three independent types of weather models — including one developed by IMD,Pune, at the time of monsoon forecasts for this year.