What is the relationship between rainfall, migration and malnutrition?

After two years of research, the NGO CARE and the United Nations University have just released the conclusions of their study on the consequences of rainfall variability. Called Where the Rain Falls, this international study funded by AXA and the MacArthur Foundation highlights the fact that rainfall variability deeply affects the behavior of whole communities.

wo years of interviewing experts and hundreds of families1 have brought forth conclusive findings: rainfall variations increase food insecurity and drive human mobility. Migration is a strategy used by populations to cope with rainfall variations. The study shows that several migration profiles exist.

Some households see migration as a way to build their adaptive capacity, while others move to survive rather than to increase their prosperity. Some households migrate as a measure of last resort and others are forced to remain in their original habitat.

With this knowledge, it is possible to develop scenarios to identify the cases of migration caused by precipitation. This is exactly what the researchers in this project did. They created a model that analyses a household's vulnerability to rainfall variability.

Inequalities in migration

The model was tested in Tanzania. It showed that for the poorest populations, migration is dependent on rainfall variations: at times of extreme drought, mobility is high, while during extreme rainfall, it is lower. In contrast, when households migrate to seek greater prosperity, they are less sensitive to changes in rainfall.

Although migration is a strategy shared by both poor and prosperous households, it affects them differently: for the former, vulnerability increases, while for the latter, situation improves.

Getting policymakers onboard

Studying the cause-to-effect relationships between rainfall variations, migration flows and food insecurity was a first step. But one of the ambitions of the Where the Rain Falls researchers was also to employ every possible resource to help impacted populations. Therefore a significant portion of the research has been directed towards UNFCCC2 members, policymakers in charge of sustainable development, governments, NGOs and institutions. How did they do this? Proposing potential initiatives that these stakeholders can implement to bring about change.

Examples include proposing sustainable economic and financial models, integrating climate change issues into food security initiatives, and setting up education and prevention programs.

Climate change brings new challenges and concerns to already-vulnerable households. Finding sustainable solutions will require more than local action among impacted populations; it will require a collective international effort.