Forecasting a hot, dry future
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the driest region in the world and home to 12 of the world’s most water-scarce countries, with water availability per person roughly six times less than the global average. Rising temperatures and evaporation rates, combined with reductions in precipitation across the region, are exacerbating challenges to water and food security.
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The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has now developed a drought monitoring and preparedness programme for the region in collaboration with governments in Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco. MENAdrought aims to improve local capacities and implement ways to more effectively anticipate, prepare for and mitigate the impacts of drought.
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MENAdrought is structured around three pillars: drought monitoring and early warning; vulnerability and impact assessments; and mitigation, preparedness and response planning. “The whole point of the three pillars of drought management is that you should be planning and developing early warning systems when it’s raining. We know crisis reaction isn’t as effective,” says Rachael McDonnell, deputy director general of research for development at IWMI.
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The drought early warning system integrates satellite and model data on rainfall, land surface temperature, soil moisture and vegetation health into an enhanced Composite Drought Index (eCDI). Maps produced by the eCDI are represented in an interactive web interface, which calculates drought severity and coverage, enabling decision-makers to readily identify an emerging drought with three months warning. The information is used by national agencies to direct early mitigation efforts, with the aim of staving off some of the worst impacts of drought.
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