ECClima: estuaries in a changing climate
Background
Since last century, mean air temperature has been rising, with predicted increases for Europe of up to 6.3ºC by 2100. In estuaries, sea level rise caused by glacier meltdown may lead to changes in tidal patterns, river flows and sediment balance. Climate change will affect estuarine organisms both directly and indirectly via trophic relationships. Since most organisms can only survive within specific latitudinal i.e. thermal ranges, temperature rise will cause migration of some species while others may suffer vast population losses. Those which do migrate may be exposed to higher predation pressure and to poor food conditions. Therefore, the ECClima project’s goal is to predict climate change impacts, namely temperature rise, on the ecophysiology and production of estuarine organisms. Focus is made on abundant species common to a wide geographic area, in three estuaries, Minho (Portugal) in the south, the Wadden Sea (The Netherlands) at intermediate latitude, and Skibotn, Tromsø (Norway) in the north, and hence covering a large latitudinal range. The resultant information will be further analysed in the light of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) of Minho estuary in order to propose mitigation and adaptation measures in a climate change context.
Themes
1) ICZM
2) Hydrodynamics
3) Ecology
Main Approaches:
1. Trophic interactions Analysis of stable isotope signatures to establish the estuarine food web and evaluate its seasonal dynamics
2. Molecular Evolution Assessing evolutionary responses to climate change
3. Eco-physiology Laboratory experiments on physiological performance in relation to abiotic conditions, namely temperature, with organisms from widely separated populations along a latitudinal gradient
4. Dynamic Energy Budgets modelling To integrate information obtained from field and experimental studies across the species geographic distribution range, in relation to temperature and food conditions
5. Phylogeography studies Genetic analyses to evaluate the existence of a population structure along the species geographical distribution
6. Population dynamics modelling Mathematical application to ecological modelling to understand how the population dynamics of key estuarine species is affected by exogenous factors specially climate fluctuations, along a latitudinal gradient
7. ICZM Status and risk analyses in order to propose mitigation and adaptation measures in a climate change context