Uncertainty and disaster risk management: modeling the flash flood risk to Vienna and its subway system
This report describes an interdisciplinary approach to flood risk analysis and management that was developed by investigating flood risks in the city of Vienna, Austria. The purpose of the research is to analyse different policy paths (including both flood-prevention measures and risk-sharing financial provisions) in the presence of major uncertainties.
The focus of this report is the phenomenon of flash flooding of the Vienna River. The analysis demonstrates that, in this case, the greatest damage from flash flooding is to be expected in the Vienna city subway system. The report thus describes a detailed assessment of the flood risk to the subway and of related management measures, on which research to date has been scarce. The results show that an approach based on catastrophe modelling and Monte Carlo simulation can not only integrate the risk perspectives of the different technical disciplines contributing to this study but also provide a useful framework for comparing the characteristics of different mitigation strategies.