When moderate storms become disasters: operationalising the co-production of flood hazard in Iraq

This study examines why floods in Iraq often become disasters even when rainfall is not extreme. Using geospatial flood mapping, long-term precipitation data, historical flood records, and interviews with officials and communities, the authors explore how flood hazard is co-produced by the interaction between hydroclimatic forces and rapidly changing socio-environmental conditions. The paper moves beyond purely technical flood modelling to analyse how urban expansion, ecosystem degradation, infrastructure performance, and governance structures shape when and where inundation occurs. 

The study finds that moderate storms can cause severe impacts because drainage systems, dams, ecosystems, and urban landscapes are degraded, poorly maintained, or inconsistently managed. Rapid urbanisation, blocked natural waterways, loss of marshlands, fragmented institutional responsibilities, and reactive governance increase runoff and reduce system reliability at critical moments. As a result, flood hazard in Iraq is dynamic and highly sensitive to infrastructure condition and governance capacity, meaning that improving forecasts alone is insufficient without addressing structural and institutional drivers of risk.