Urbanization erodes heat resilience across Chinese cities

This study aims to systematically reveal the nexus among urban heat resilience, urban-scale expansion, and land-cover transformation in 70 rapidly urbanizing Chinese cities (Figure 1). To address existing knowledge gaps, this study develops an integrated framework that links urban-scale development, land-cover dynamics, and heat resilience evaluation to better understand the spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear responses of urban heat systems.

The key findings show that heat resilience deteriorated sharply by up to 120% during early urbanization, before later stabilizing or partially recovering in many cities. Increases in built-up area or building height raise the HRI, reflecting lower resilience, whereas green and water area expansions decrease it, pointing to improved resilience. Built-up density and green coverage are identified as dominant drivers, showing positive and negative associations with the HRI, respectively. The authors recommend that urban planning prioritize expanding green-blue infrastructure and managing urban densification to enhance heat resilience. The proposed evaluation framework and findings are applicable beyond China, supporting climate-adaptive planning and resilient city design in varied urban contexts.