A spatial decision support system for modeling urban resilience to natural hazards

This study presents a spatial decision support system for modelling urban resilience and selecting resilient zones in response to natural hazards. Focusing on Tehran, it evaluates spatial resilience to flood and earthquake risks separately and in combination, using environmental, demographic and infrastructure criteria. The study used two spatial databases, remote sensing products and organization-derived data, and drew on the opinions of 82 academic and organizational specialists.

The findings show that the level of resilience varies according to risk attitude and decision scenario. Northern regions and a considerable area of central Tehran have very low resilience to combined flood and earthquake risks, while vulnerable population density was among the most important demographic criteria. The study concludes that planners and managers may select an appropriate scenario based on their attitude to risk and recommends using the approach to identify vulnerable areas that should be prioritized during resilience-building activities. The results can assist planners in developing spatial planning strategies and authorities in devising disaster risk reduction strategies and policies.