Our atmosphere and climate 2026

This report is part of the New Zealand Environmental Reporting Series produced by the Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport and Stats NZ. It presents an independent, evidence-based assessment of New Zealand’s atmosphere and climate, synthesizing updated indicator data and scientific literature, mātauranga Māori, and expert review. Using environmental indicators and corroborated evidence, the report covers long-term trends and recent changes—such as rising greenhouse gas concentrations, warming air and sea temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased climate extremes—drawing on data from across New Zealand (including public research, government reports and observations). The scope includes natural environments, human health, economy, infrastructure, and the future outlooks based on current trends and climate scenarios.

The report finds that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures continue to reach record highs, with seven of the ten warmest years on record since 2016. Impacts include more intense heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, affecting native ecosystems, species, Māori cultural connections, human health, agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. It projects further warming and increased climate risks under both low and high emissions scenarios. Key recommendations emphasize improving climate risk assessments, strengthening adaptation and resilience measures, expanding access to climate information, and further incorporating Māori knowledge and values in climate understanding. The authors highlight the need for informed decisions and up-front adaptation investment to reduce future social, environmental, and economic costs.