Increasing frequency and intensity of single, multiple and concurrent meteorological hazards in Europe from a high-resolution dataset (1961–2020)

This study investigates the change between past (1961–1990) and present (1991–2020) periods in the frequency and intensity of meteorological hazards in Europe, namely hot and cold waves, droughts, extreme precipitation and fire weather. Using a very high-resolution (1.5 km) pan-European dataset (HERA), the authors analyse not only changes in hazards taken separately but also combinations of multiple hazards occurring in the same month and concurrent hazards occurring in the same month and year. The study also assesses changes in the population exposed to different combinations of concurrent hazards. The analysis shows that Europe has become prone to more frequent and intense multiple hazards. 

This study finds that concurrent events have also become more frequent. The frequency of concurrent HD conditions has increased over most of Europe throughout the year, while concurrent HF and HDF events have increased over Mediterranean countries. The population cumulatively exposed to concurrent HD hazards in 1991–2020 was around 2.7 times larger than during 1961–1990 in November and 4.7 times larger in August, while the population exposed to HW concurrent events in May was 7.3 times larger. The authors conclude that the analysis is useful for raising awareness about the increasing risk of multiple and concurrent meteorological extreme events and to assess the impact of compound events. The results clearly advocate for preparedness and adequate adaptation strategies and highlight the value of high-resolution datasets for informing decision-making at local scales and evaluating climate models’ ability to reproduce extreme events and compound effects.