Climate-induced glacial lake outburst floods and nature-based risk management approach in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

This paper examines climate dynamics, glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risks, and nature-based risk management strategies for sustainable development in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region of the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. The study used rainfall and temperature data from ten meteorological stations covering 1960–2019, glacial lake inventory data, GIS analysis, and field surveys conducted in vulnerable areas. The analysis found that mean annual rainfall increased by 2.4 per cent in the Hindu Kush, 33.8 per cent in the Karakoram, and 8.3 per cent in the Himalaya range. The majority of glacier-fed lakes in the Karakoram and Himalaya showed expansion in lake area, while climate change altered the cryosphere regime, contributing to more frequent flash floods and GLOF events that have caused environmental degradation, infrastructure damage, property loss, and loss of life downstream.

The paper finds that effective nature-based flood risk management should focus on preserving natural ecosystems, enhancing ecosystem health, and strengthening the response capacity of vulnerable communities. It recommends ecosystem-based land use planning, clear demarcation of vulnerable areas, reconnecting and enlarging floodplains where necessary, and promoting afforestation and reforestation to reduce flood runoff, sediment loads, and socio-economic vulnerability. The author also emphasizes capacity building through resource sharing, skills transfer, awareness raising, educational programmes, and the integration of traditional and scientific knowledge. Local communities, experts, and institutions should be involved in policy development and nature-based solutions for effective GLOF risk management and long-term resilience.