Climate Hazard Assessment – Obongi District

This report provides a comprehensive spatial analysis of historical climate trends and future projections for Obongi District, Uganda. It evaluates key climate hazards—specifically seasonal droughts and flood susceptibility—highlighting their impacts on local livelihoods, infrastructure, host communities, and refugee populations in Palorinya Settlement.

Key messages of the report:

• Obongi District currently receives ~1,156 mm of annual rainfall, projected to increase moderately to ~ 1,312 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, rainfall gains are expected to be unevenly distributed across the district, with larger increases in Itula, Obongi Town Council, and Gimara sub-counties.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.6-2.8°C during the warmest month and driest quarters respectively. This implies that already hot seasons will continue being hot, leading to heat stress for people, crops and livestock.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness, particularly in Aliba, Gimara and Obongi Town Council. Palorinya Refugee Settlement also experiences extreme dryness which impacts on soil moisture availability, crop performance, rangeland conditions, and water access.
• Low-lying areas near the River Nile and seasonal rivers have the highest flood risk. Affected areas include Obongi Town and Palorinya Refugee Settlement. Affected areas include Obongi Town and Palorinya Refugee Settlement. Flooding during intense rainfall and river overflow can damage shelters, roads, and sanitation facilities, posing risks to livelihoods and public health for both host and refugee communities.