Climate Hazard Assessment – Kiryandongo District

This report evaluates climate risks in Kiryandongo District, Uganda, where rising temperatures and erratic rainfall threaten over 165,000 refugees and local host communities. The district-level analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of hazard susceptibility, exposure patterns, and future climate hazards, equipping government authorities and humanitarian and development partners with the evidence needed to implement targeted interventions, strengthen disaster preparedness, and enhance resilience in Uganda’s refugee-hosting districts.

Key messages from the assessment:

•  Kiryandongo District receives ~1,209 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise to ~1,372 mm by mid-century (SSP2-4.5). However, increased variability, longer dry spells, and higher evapotranspiration may heighten water stress, especially in Mutunda Sub-county due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture and population pressure.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 -2.6°C, particularly during the warmest month and driest quarters. This will likely increase the frequency of very hot days, heat stress and seasonal drought risk affecting crop productivity, livestock health and water availability.
• Seasonal drought remains a major hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) indicating moderate to severe dryness. High-risk areas like Ranch 1, Ranch 37, Bweyale, and Mutunda Sub-counties face vegetation stress, reduced yields, and limited pasture and water.
• Flooding is recurrent in low-lying river valleys and floodplains, especially along the Victoria Nile and tributaries. Affected areas include Mutunda, Bweyale Town Council, Masindi Port, and Ranch 1 and 37, impacting farms, homes, and infrastructure, and increasing vulnerability.