The author examines the types as well as the dimensions and dynamics of crisis threats that one may have to confront in the foreseeable future. The intended audience is for those with roles and responsibilities to reduce the impact and consequences of such crisis drivers.
The author proposes anticipatory methodology as a means to
- move planners away from the limitations of trends analysis and offer opportunities to speculate about possible and plausible crisis drivers without the limitations imposed by only looking at the future as an extension of the past;
- promote connections that normally are not made in conventional strategic and operational planning; and
- serve as a check to speculate about the relevance and durability of existing risk reduction programmes and projects.
This document is a contributing paper of the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.