Assessment of flood damage to agricultural crops under climate change scenarios using MRI-AGCM outputs in the Solo River basin of Indonesia

This study first explored the relationship between extreme rainfall and damaged paddy area for a historical period, and then focused on the quantitative analysis of flood impact on rice crops under climate change using MRI-AGCM3.2S climate model outputs for the past (1979–2002) and future (2075–2098) climate periods for the Solo River basin in Indonesia.

The study revealed a strong connection between extreme rainfall and damaged paddy fields. With climate change, floods could become more frequent and severe, causing even greater crop losses under the RCP8.5 scenario. To reduce damage, farmers may need to adopt flood-tolerant rice, adjust planting times, and implement better land-use plans to protect rice production in the future.