India: Here is why improved forecasts are not helping prevent floods and droughts

By Raghu Murtugudde

Extreme rainfall events that led to the major flood in Mumbai in August 2017 and the disastrous Kerala flood this year as well as several less catastrophic ones across the country were predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) days in advance. Yet the forecasts were not useful in avoiding such disasters.

A systematic evaluation of the perception of forecast accuracy among engineers and managers who make decisions and uncertainty on dam operations as well as water resources is needed to bridge the gap from forecasts to lifesaving decisions. There is also a need to create seamless forecasts from weather to climate with the so-called extended range or sub-seasonal forecasts.

The best examples of sub-seasonal phenomena are the active and break spells in the monsoon which can last for multiple weeks. Most of the agricultural decisions can benefit from sub-seasonal forecasts. Other sectors which stand to benefit are disaster preparedness and recovery, energy, water, public health, fisheries and aquaculture.

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