UK and Ireland face greatest risk from rare tropical cyclones reaching Europe
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These storms are rare enough that their risks have been difficult to assess from historical records alone. Now, Dr. Kelvin Ng of the University of Birmingham, UK, and colleagues have used thousands of simulated hurricane seasons to explore storms that have never actually been observed, finding that the UK and Ireland are among the parts of Europe most likely to be affected.
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To get around this limited historical record, the researchers used an approach known as UNSEEN, short for UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes using Ensembles. The team used two sets of computer simulations covering the 20th century, which collectively gave the researchers thousands of possible storm tracks to analyze.
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The results revealed a clear geographic pattern. Tropical-origin cyclones were more likely to produce impacts in western Europe than in the east, with the British Isles standing out as the region at greatest risk. Ireland had the highest likelihood of experiencing potential wind impacts, with an estimated 13% of Europe-impacting tropical-origin cyclones affecting the country. The UK followed at 11–12%, ahead of Belgium and the Netherlands. Ireland and the UK also had the highest likelihood of potential rainfall impacts.
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For now, the researchers say their findings highlight a different problem: Some potentially damaging European storms may simply be missing from the historical record. That could be important for long-term planning. European countries already prepare for damaging winter storms, but tropical-origin cyclones have received much less attention because of their rarity.
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