Research provides asset managers with guidance for climate adaptation decisions
Researchers from Deltares and VU University Amsterdam have developed a framework that helps managers of critical infrastructure make better-informed decisions by comparing the performance climate adaptation measures.
The model captures not only direct damage, but also the economic impacts of disruptions across networks.
Climate-related hazards such as flooding, drought and heatwaves are putting increasing pressure on critical infrastructure, including energy systems and transport networks. These hazards cause not only physical damage to infrastructure assets, but can also lead to disruptions with significant economic consequences. For asset managers, it remains challenging to compare adaptation measures and make well-founded decisions. The new framework supports this process, from hazard-level measures to individual assets, networks, and entire systems.
The researchers describe the framework and its application to a railway corridor in the paper ' A multi-level framework for climate adaptation of critical infrastructure: flood risk in railway networks '.
Beyond damage: capturing economic impact
The framework provides insight into both physical damage and economic losses resulting from network disruptions. This offers a more realistic picture of the overall impact of extreme weather, as well as the effectiveness of potential measures. It enables planners and asset managers to make more robust decisions on how to prevent or limit disruptions.
With this framework, you can better compare which measures are likely to prevent or limit disruption. Ultimately, not making a decision is a decision in itself — and often not the best one. —Daniel Peregrina Gonzalez, PhD researcher in critical infrastructure at Deltares and VU University Amsterdam.
German railway corridor highlights risks
For the case study, the researchers applied the framework to a railway in Germany, where flooding poses a significant risk. The analysis shows that flood risk to railways could increase by up to 310% over the next century. More than half of this risk consists of indirect losses due to network disruptions.
The study also reveals that a large share of the network is vulnerable: around 38% of the rail line may be exposed to flooding. This is partly due to the location of many routes in flood-prone areas, such as the Rhine floodplains.
In the case study, the researchers compared different types of measures, including flood defences, raising railway tracks, and creating new network connections. By assessing all measures using the same indicators, such as risk reduction and cost–benefit ratios, asset managers are better able to compare options and make informed choices for climate adaptation.
No one-size-fits-all solution
The study shows that there is no single measure that works best everywhere. Effectiveness and cost-efficiency vary by location and scale. In some cases, network-level measures, such as alternative routes, prove more effective than adapting individual assets.
According to the researchers, this highlights the importance of an integrated approach, combining measures across different levels and tailoring them to the local context.
Open source and widely applicable
The framework is open source and based on publicly available data, making it readily applicable for infrastructure managers, policymakers and researchers seeking to prioritise investments and strengthen resilience.
Although the case study focuses on railways and flooding, the approach can also be applied to other infrastructure sectors and climate hazards.
Follow-up research focuses on interdependencies
This research forms the first part of a PhD project examining the interdependencies between different infrastructure systems and multiple climate hazards. The framework is currently being applied in a case study in Zuid-Holland, focusing on the interdependence of electricity and road networks.
The paper describes the framework and its application to a German railway corridor.