A hotter, drier 2026 monsoon can compound disaster risks in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

<p>The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 forecasts that several countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, are likely to witness drier-than-average monsoon conditions coupled with temperatures averaging 0.5&nbsp;°C to 2&nbsp;°C above the seasonal normal.&nbsp;</p><p>A below-normal monsoon with above-normal seasonal temperature may compound disaster vulnerabilities across the HKH region, warns scientists from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a co-publisher of this year’s Outlook.&nbsp;</p><p>“As the warming trend - intensified by El Niño conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean - extends into the mountain areas, it heightens the risk of water-induced disasters”, says Qianggong Zhang, Head of Climate and Environmental Risks at ICIMOD.<br><br>The HKH is already under a pervasive water-stress threat with a dry monsoon expected to succeed the unusually arid 2025-2026 winter, which marked a two-decade historical low in seasonal snow persistence.&nbsp;</p><p>Alongside, the projected drier and warmer conditions also intensify the likelihood of other life-disrupting events, including heatwaves and wildfires. Equally threatening is the increased risk of localised episodes of intense rainfall that could trigger disasters like flash floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods in vulnerable mountain areas.&nbsp;</p><p>Under the climate-amplifying El Nino effect, HKH must grapple with the complicated challenge of worsening and intertwined weather extremes, alongside escalating variability – all unfolding at the same time. Consequently, climate‑induced food, water, energy, and health insecurities in the region are assuming increasingly complex dimensions, creating vulnerabilities that interconnect and compound across sectors and communities.&nbsp;</p><p>According to Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Specialist at ICIMOD, “With the nature of disaster risks rapidly mutating in the region, DRR strategies can no longer evaluate hazards in isolation. The era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over. Anticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation of disaster preparedness."<br><br>Although 2026 is expected to be a drier-than-normal monsoon for the region, the outlook urges that hazard planning for the region must factor in the rising likelihood of localised extreme events of intense heat or precipitation spells, which could be in sharp contrast to the macro weather patterns.&nbsp;</p><p>Jointly published by ICIMOD and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS), the 2026 Monsoon Outlook attempts to set the ball rolling for multidimensional hazard preparedness within the climate policy discourse of the Asian highlands.<br><br>Read more here:&nbsp;https://doi.org/10.53055/ICIMOD.1132</p&gt;