Bad weather warnings most effective if probability included, new research suggests - Society for Risk Analysis

With severe weather expected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change, the importance of effectively communicating weather warnings to the public will only grow. Even though weather warnings are becoming increasingly timely and accurate, massive losses of life have occurred because the public has not always heeded the advice officials have given.

To better understand this important phenomenon, psychology and risk researchers at the University of Washington developed an experiment to test how “false alarms” affect the public’s willingness to take precautions when authorities issue weather warnings and urge action. Besides providing the first evidence that false alarms—the so-called “cry wolf effect”—contribute to noncompliance with weather warnings, the research also produced a critical insight: warnings are most effective when they carry a probability estimate. Such research could contribute to improved communication of weather warnings to the public and fewer lives lost.

To learn more about these findings, see the full article linked below for more details or to arrange an interview with the authors.