Anticipating wildfires: new AI-enhanced risk intelligence
In recent years, “wildfire weather” has emerged as a critical concept in disaster management. Catastrophes the Lahaina wildfire in Hawai‘i, the California Palisades fire, and Canada’s wildfire disaster of 2023, illustrate the need for a fundamental shift in preparedness and planning that leverages advanced technologies for early awareness about wildfires and wildfire weather. Understanding and anticipating wildfires is no longer optional; it is foundational to effective preparedness, response, and resilience.
“Saving lives and protecting communities from wildfires depends on decisions made in moments of uncertainty. That’s why it’s essential for emergency managers to have trusted data, actionable insights, and rapid analysis of risks all in one place—so they can move quickly, prioritize effectively, and stay ahead of evolving threats like wildfire weather,” said Dr. Erin Hughey, Deputy Executive Director of Pacific Disaster Center (PDC).
From technology to action: DisasterAWARE
To address this growing challenge, PDC has released several new advanced technologies that leverage advanced modeling and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance global wildfire detection, wildfire weather monitoring, and risk assessment through its early warning and risk intelligence platform, DisasterAWARE.
“Through our partnership with NASA, we are now continuously receiving remotely sensed satellite data from around the world and integrating it into DisasterAWARE to gain a clear picture of where fires are burning and how they’re spreading. We analyze this information to determine the level of threat, track the fire’s progression, and augment information with artificial intelligence to issue alerts and analytics in near real-time,” said PDC’s Director of Applied Science Dr. Joseph Green.
“This is especially powerful during peak fire weather when multiple simultaneous ignitions and rapid wind shifts can overwhelm manual monitoring or become dangerous for flyovers. It also fills critical knowledge and monitoring gaps that exist in remote geographies or areas with lower capacity for observation and early warning.”
DisasterAWARE offers capabilities that enhance wildfire weather and risk awareness by integrating multiple datasets and robust monitoring tools to tackle the triad of wildfire behavior such as weather, fuel, and topography. These come together into a unified operational picture that supports the full disaster management lifecycle and enables better anticipation, analysis, and response to wildfire threats.
7 steps disaster managers can take now to increase readiness
- Pre-configure Smart Alerts
- Integrate critical asset information into DisasterAWARE
- Monitor real-time wildfire risks
- Get automated wildfire analysis with Event Brief
- Exercise complex wildfire events with DisasterAWARE
- Leverage advanced wildfire risk models and historical data to assess wildfire threats, and inform planning and recovery from wildfires.
- Encourage communities to download the free Disaster Alert app to remain alert about wildfire threats in their locations.
A new standard for wildfire risk intelligence
Wildfires are no longer isolated incidents, but part of a broader, systemic hazard profile. Environmental conditions that influence the ignition, behavior, and spread of wildfires must be taken into consideration. Key factors include:
- Drought conditions that dry out vegetation, creating abundant fuel
- Low humidity that accelerates combustion
- High winds that rapidly spread flames and embers
- Heatwaves that intensify fire behavior and strain response systems
- Topography (slope, aspect, and terrain) that influences fire intensity, direction, rate of spread, and accessibility
- Early detection that supports early action
DisasterAWARE brings together information about these converging factors, which create environments where fires ignite more easily, burn more intensely, and spread more unpredictably—often in places densely populated or previously considered lower risk.
“Wildfire weather represents a shift in how we understand and manage fire risk—from reactive suppression to proactive intelligence. As conditions continue to evolve, so must the tools and strategies used to address them,” said PDC’s Dr. Hughey.
“By integrating global data, predictive analytics, and real-time ignition detection into DisasterAWARE, PDC has built a powerful tool to empower emergency and disaster managers to stay ahead of wildfire threats—transforming uncertainty into actionable insight.”
In a world where wildfire weather is growing in threat to populations and critical infrastructure, preparedness depends on visibility, speed, and informed decision-making. With the right tools in place, agencies can move from reacting to disasters to anticipating them—and ultimately, building more resilient communities.