Black Swans: Resilience and the unthinkable

Background

The term Black Swan is used to refer to very low probability and high consequence events that are difficult to predict or prevent and can result in truly catastrophic outcomes. Classical risk assessment and risk management approaches tend to focus our thinking and action on the most likely and severe disruptive events. This common approach to emergency management thinking draws our attention toward those events that we expect will occur at some time, and often occur regularly, such as wildfire or flood.

The Black Swan concept challenges us to think about the unthinkable. To consider events that may be inconceivable or at least highly unlikely. If common risk and emergency management approaches are inadequate, how do we identify potential Black Swans? How do we build resilient communities that are able to survive through these unexpected events?

This course will discuss the relationship between Black Swans, how we think about disruptive events and the concepts underpinning resilience. These principles and concepts will be applied to resilience building for the nation, its communities, its institutions and organisations.