Mombasa strengthens risk-informed urban resilience

This case study describes how Mombasa City and Mombasa County, Kenya, are strengthening risk-informed urban resilience through support from the European Union, the World Bank and the Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR). The intervention delivers an ex-ante probabilistic analysis of flood risk in Mombasa, combining probabilistic assessment modelling, spatial analysis and economic appraisal tools. Hydrological and hydraulic models simulate current and future climate scenarios to produce flood hazard and risk maps, while GIS databases, terrain models and remote sensing data support hotspot identification and exposure analysis. The assessment also includes capacity-building activities, technical workshops and stakeholder engagement.

The study found that flooding and coastal risks threaten economic activity, infrastructure and livelihoods, with more than 30 per cent of the city located in high-risk flood zones and approximately 80,000 people exposed to annual flooding. The risk assessment identified priority hotspots and quantified exposure at asset level. Recommendations focus on risk-informed planning, resilient infrastructure design, policy and institutional reviews, land-use planning, zoning and development control, and the development of a costed investment plan integrating grey, nature-based and hybrid solutions.