Disagreement between scientists over whether Central and South America are about to be hit by a major El Niño event are delaying vital preparations, the region’s weather organisations warn in a report by SciDevNet. South American scientists are still quibbling over whether an El Niño event is building. The uncertainty is impacting officials and states, who must act soon to prevent the worst scenarios, including deaths from natural disasters, meteorological organisations say.
Ciro Ugarte, director of the Pan American Health Organization’s emergency preparedness and disaster relief department, says acting on El Niño predictions is mandatory to ensure the continent can cope with the fallout. He admits there is no certainty, but says that, for his organisation, “doing nothing is not an option. As policymakers, our best choice is dealing with consensus among scientists, and now the consensus is that there is a 95 per cent chance of having a strong or very strong El Niño year."