How landlocked countries are prioritizing water in their adaptation planning

When people think about climate vulnerability, they often picture devastating cyclones and coastlines disappearing beneath rising seas. Yet some of the world's biggest climate risks are unfolding hundreds of kilometers from the ocean. In many landlocked countries, climate change is causing severe changes to the glaciers, lakes and rivers that make life possible. 

As temperatures rise, glaciers and lakes that have sustained rivers for generations are retreating, altering the timing and volume of water flowing downstream. This, in turn, profoundly affects agriculture, industry, energy production, public health and ecosystems which depend on that water, leaving communities — and their livelihoods and sustainable development — increasingly vulnerable. 

Moreover, because rivers rarely stop at national borders, these changes can ripple across entire regions. A river may begin high in the mountains of one country before crossing several international borders, meaning decisions upstream can affect communities hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away. 

To strengthen their resilience to an unpredictable future, countries are giving water an increasingly central role in their national adaptation planning.

This is especially true for landlocked countries where water is crucial for almost every sector of the economy. Many landlocked countries depend on hydropower for their electricity generation. As rainfall becomes more erratic and river flows fluctuate, hydropower generation can become less reliable, reducing electricity production and increasing pressure on already stretched energy systems. This creates a cycle in which water insecurity can quickly become energy insecurity. 

Water resources are also essential for food production in landlocked countries which don’t have access to ocean resources or maritime trade. When freshwater resources for irrigation diminish, the impact on agriculture production and food security is felt immediately.

Recognizing these interconnected risks, with support from UNDP and funding from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Readiness Programme, Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan have prioritized increasing the resilience of their freshwater resources through their National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes.

Kyrgyz Republic

Unlike many of its neighbors in Central Asia, the Kyrgyz Republic generates most of its freshwater within its own borders, with rivers fed by glaciers and snowpack in the towering Tian Shan mountains. These waters produce around 92 percent of the country's electricity through hydropower, while also supporting agriculture, mining and the daily needs of communities across the country and the region. 

With climate change causing the glaciers to retreat and rainfall becoming less predictable, the country’s freshwater supplies are under increasing pressure. Over time, declining river flows and growing water losses throughout the system threaten electricity generation, food production, livelihoods and public health, with significant impacts on the economy.

Recognizing that its water systems are at risk, the Kyrgyz Republic has placed water security and hydropower resilience at the center of its NAP process. 

Adaptation planning has brought together ministries responsible for energy, agriculture, biodiversity, health and emergency management around a shared understanding of the climate risks the country is facing. The Kyrgyz Republic is now working to strengthen institutions, gather data and enhance coordination to safeguard its water resources and ensure that hydropower remains a reliable source of clean electricity even as climate conditions continue to change.

One of the defining features of the Kyrgyz Republic's approach has been extending adaptation planning beyond the national level, because climate impacts differ between provinces and is shaped by local watersheds, glacier-fed rivers, infrastructure and livelihoods. Through vulnerability assessments conducted under the NAP process and adaptation planning in pilot provinces, local governments are identifying the climate risks most relevant to their communities and, in turn, helping inform national priorities.

This two-way approach strengthens coordination between national and provincial institutions, ensuring adaptation measures reflect local realities while contributing to more resilient water and energy systems across the country. 

Armenia 

In Armenia, the Ararat Valley, part of the transboundary Aras River Basin shared by Armenia and Türkiye, is an important source of freshwater. Irrigation from the basin sustains one of country’s most productive agricultural regions, supporting thousands of farmers. 

In recent decades, the valley has been heavily impacted by climate change. Rising temperatures, earlier snowpack melting and droughts are causing water availability to be increasingly variable, exerting additional pressure on groundwater resources, which have decreased by two-thirds.

In response to the emerging water crisis, Armenia has used its NAP process to strengthen governance across the water sector and better prepare for climate impacts on its water systems. The country has identified and embedded climate risks into its NAP and Water Code, while a dedicated Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the Water Resources Sector (2022–2026) provides a roadmap for protecting water supplies in the years ahead. In the Ararat Valley, irrigation norms were revised to improve water efficiency, helping ensure that limited water resources can support agriculture under increasingly variable conditions.

The country also updated the River Basin Management Plans for the Southern and Ararat River Basin districts to integrate climate risks into long-term water planning. In addition, by undertaking feasibility studies and economic assessments for underground reservoirs, Armenia is working to improve water storage and reliability during periods of drought. 

Uzbekistan 

In recent decades, Uzbekistan has had to adapt to the drying of the Aral Sea — once the world's fourth-largest inland lake — which  has lost around 90 percent of its water volume and 75 percent of its surface area over the past half century. The drying of the lake has left behind vast stretches of exposed seabed, causing soil salinity, dust and salt storms, declining agricultural productivity and driving water insecurity across the region. 

For the communities in Karakalpakstan and surrounding provinces, the challenge of water management is significant, even before considering the social, economic and environmental consequences of one of the world's fastest-changing landscapes. As climate change places additional pressure on already scarce water resources, strengthening resilience in the Priaralie (Aral Sea coastal zone) has become a national priority for Uzbekistan.

Through its NAP process, Uzbekistan has been laying foundations for more climate-informed water governance and decision-making. The country has strengthened climate risk assessments for the water and agriculture sectors, while building the scientific and economic evidence needed to prioritize adaptation investments where they are needed most. 

In addition, Uzbekistan has enhanced coordination through its Centre of Hydrometeorological Service (Uzhydromet) and strengthened adaptation planning across the regions of Karakalpakstan, Bukhara and Khorezm, where water scarcity and land degradation pose significant development challenges.

Together, these efforts formulated under the NAP process are creating enhanced climate-informed water management plans in the Aral Sea coastal zone, ensuring that adaptation investments, planning and decision-making are equipped to address the region's growing climate challenges. Building on this progress, a second National Adaptation Plan project is under development, with submission to the GCF expected later this year.

Whether protecting glacier-fed rivers in the Kyrgyz Republic, strengthening river basin management in Armenia or improving water governance in Uzbekistan's Aral Sea coastal zone, building resilience in the water sector is crucial to strengthening the systems that communities in landlocked countries depend on every day.

NAP processes can help countries move beyond short-term responses to long-term planning. Through vulnerability and risk assessments, strengthened institutions, improved coordination across sectors and closer collaboration between national and subnational governments, countries can identify where climate risks are greatest and prioritize adaptation where it is needed most to ensure a climate-resilient future.