El Niño climate impact outlook -Mozambique

The El Niño Climate Impact Outlook:Mozambique examines the expected evolution of El Niño during the second half of 2026 and its potential impacts across the country.

Some of the key message from the outlook include:

• El Niño is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026, increasing the likelihood of drought across central and southern Mozambique, although tropical cyclones and localized flooding remain possible during the rainy season. 
• Agriculture and water resources are likely to be the principal impact pathways, with cascading effects on food security, nutrition, rural livelihoods, markets and household welfare. 
• Exposure is likely to be greatest in drought-prone agricultural areas of central and southern Mozambique, where reliance on rainfed agriculture and existing food insecurity increase vulnerability.