Vulnerability assessment to tropical cyclones in the North Caribbean Coast of Nicaragua (1988–2022)

This research assesses the vulnerability of municipalities in Nicaragua's North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region (RACCN) — one of the areas most exposed to tropical cyclones (TCs), a condition compounded by climate change and internal structural disparities — to address persistent gaps in the systematic analysis of its vulnerability despite its long history of exposure. To do so, the study constructs a Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability Index (VItc) and develops a municipal typology built on three dimensions: exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity. Twelve indicators were selected and normalized, then analyzed using factor analysis with varimax rotation; the resulting sub-indices were combined through weighted aggregation, and municipalities were classified using the Natural Breaks (Jenks) method to produce a differentiated typology.

The findings reveal marked territorial disparities across RACCN municipalities. Bonanza stands out for combining high exposure and susceptibility with low adaptive capacity, while Waslala demonstrates greater structural resilience. The VItc identifies three municipality clusters with distinct vulnerability profiles, enabling the design of targeted interventions, and underscores the role of social, demographic, and infrastructure factors in shaping local vulnerability. Despite limitations in data availability, the index offers a diagnostic tool for identifying priority areas and informing disaster risk reduction and resilience strategies. The study emphasizes the need to improve data availability and strengthen institutional capacities, and points to future research directions including the integration of territorial, socioeconomic, and gender-sensitive approaches, dynamic variables such as climate projections, land-use change, and migration, and participatory methods that incorporate local knowledge.