2018/19 El Niño Asia-Pacific impact outlook for March to April 2019

This document updates the 2018/2019 El Niño advisory that was released by ESCAP, RIMES and UNDP on 6 December 2018.

Based on the prevailing conditions in December 2018, the advisory stated that although the stage is set for the tango between the ocean and the atmosphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may or may not materialize, or just slightly influence some parts of the region. Although there are no major changes in this situation, there are signs of the tango materializing. While the sea surface temperatures have cooled from mid-December 2018, they are still slightly above El Niño thresholds. In addition, the atmosphere has started showing signs of response that are consistent with borderline weak El Niño conditions. The current document updates the 6 December advisory to apprise Governments, development and humanitarian agencies about El Niño conditions during the transitional spring months of March-April 2019.