Document / Publication

  • Do more with your content!Discover PreventionWeb Services
  • A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh
    https://www.preventionweb.net/go/58725

    Email sent!

    An email has been sent to the email addresses provided, with a link to this content.

    Thank you for sharing!

    OK

A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh

Source(s):  IOP Science

Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go.

This paper modifies a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, this paper predicts that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. It also finds that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, this paper demonstrates an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.



Add this content to your collection!

Enter an existing tag to add this content to one or more of your current collections. To start a new collection, enter a new tag below.

See My collections to name and share your collection
Back to search results to find more content to tag

Log in to add your tags
  • A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh
  • Publication date 2018
  • Author(s) Davis, Kyle Frankel; Bhattachan, Abinash; D’Odorico, Paolo; Suweis, Samir
  • Number of pages 11 p.

Please note:Content is displayed as last posted by a PreventionWeb community member or editor. The views expressed therein are not necessarily those of UNISDR PreventionWeb, or its sponsors. See our terms of use