IDS Working Paper Volume 2016 No. 465:
This paper examines the linkages between social protection and resilience to climate change among poor rural households through a case study of the conditional cash transfer programme "Oportunidades" in two rural communities in Yucatan, Mexico, a region highly exposed to hurricanes and droughts. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected by means of household surveys, life-history interviews, key informant interviews, group discussions and participant
observation.
The working paper found that the main role of "Oportunidades" is to provide a regular and predictable safety net that protects households from short-term risk, thus increasing households’ coping capacity. The impact on the adaptive capacity of households is indirect and differentiated according to their respective poverty profiles. Furthermore, the research shows that certain features of the theory of change of "Oportunidades" , and its design, reduce the potential impact of the programme, creating trade-offs between coping and adaptive capacities. It concludes by making a case for social protection to be complemented by other interventions in a systemic approach that should explicitly consider climate change, in order to increase resilience.