Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

Due to rising sea levels and changes in storms, floods from the sea are expected to become more frequent in the coming decades. How the probability of a storm surge will change as a result of climate change has been studied by an international team. The team analysed storm surges that occur on average once every ten years. A comparison between the period 1951-1980 and 2021-2050 shows that storm surges can get up to 20 percent higher. This could contribute to increased flood risk.

The paper find that in each part of the world, the change in storm surge patterns can be different. Some areas such as the Mediterranean, North Africa and South Australia could see lower storm surges, while others such as South Australia, Alaska, the northern Caribbean, East Africa, China and the Korean Peninsula could face higher storm surges. The predicted changes are not large relative to the large climate variability, model errors and uncertainties in the analysis of extreme values. Future research is needed to better understand the causes of the model biases and seek specific causes for the change in storm surges.